If you haven’t been paying close attention (so, most baseball fans outside of Kansas City), Hunter Dozier has put together a solid season for the Royals. This is noteworthy for a few reasons. First, Dozier was a first-round pick, which the Royals have struggled to get solid production out of in recent years (Hello to Nolan Watson, Chase Vallot, Ashe Russell, and Foster Griffin). Second, Dozier struggled mightily for several years in the minors before remaking himself into this current iteration which has accounted for 2.0 WAR.
A quick peek at Dozier’s life in the minors shows how big of an improvement happened. In 64 games in Double-A in 2014, Dozier hit .209 while only getting on-base at a .213 clip. In 2015, he posted similar numbers at the same level over 128 games, hitting .213/.281/.349. And in 2016, Dozier got his first taste in Kansas City, getting a small sample in eight games, going 4-for-21 with one double.
Dozier was back in Major League Baseball in 2018, mainly looking overwhelmed at the plate. Overall, he was below replacement level, coming in at -0.8 WAR while playing below average defense. What has changed? For one, his plate discipline. Second, Hunter hits the ball extremely hard.
First, a look at plate discipline. Opposing pitchers understand this and know where to attack. We can take a look at Hunter’s swing percentages for 2018, per Baseball Savant:
Compared to 2019:
Hunter is chasing less. His O-Swing% has decreased from 35.6% to 29.4%, which is a marginally significant improvement. In addition, he appears to be hitting almost everything that he sees in the zone with a high exit velocity, including a scorching 102.2 MPH on pitches up and away:
Interestingly, however, he hasn’t connected on any home runs in that same area:
While I cannot say that I am sold on Hunter Dozier as a Major League third baseman, he has made some marginal improvements in that regard. According to FanGraphs his UZR has improved from -2.9 to -1.9 in a year. Not great, but an improvement.
While we may not be on the verge of a new star, we could be on the verge of a legitimately good hitter. It could potentially be an interesting development to see if Hunter’s 2019 production continues into future years, and if the Royals believe he is their third baseman. But for now, we can enjoy watching Hunter Dozier scorch pitches, as long as he doesn’t chase.
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